The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 52.6 in January 2026. This reading is above the key level of 50, signaling a shift from economic contraction to expansion. It is the first time the index has crossed this threshold in a year.
This development has sparked discussion in the cryptocurrency community. Some analysts see a historical link between PMI expansion phases and major Bitcoin bull markets. They point to past breakouts in 2013, 2016, and 2020 that preceded significant Bitcoin rallies. The argument is that a growing manufacturing sector reflects a healthier economy, which can support riskier assets like crypto.
Other analysts urge caution. They argue the PMI is not a direct indicator for Bitcoin prices. Instead, it is a signal for future Federal Reserve monetary policy. A strong PMI suggests a robust economy, which may reduce the Fed’s urgency to cut interest rates. Historically, higher or steady interest rates can tighten financial conditions and dampen appetite for speculative assets.
These analysts note that the relationship is not consistent. There have been periods, like 2014-2015 and 2018-2019, where the PMI was in expansion while Bitcoin was in a bear market. Conversely, Bitcoin saw massive gains from 2023 to 2025 while the PMI was mostly in contraction.
The debate highlights a split in how to view Bitcoin’s cycles. One camp looks at broader macroeconomic trends like the PMI. The other remains focused on Bitcoin-specific events like its halving. The coming months will test whether this manufacturing rebound translates into sustained crypto market strength or remains a separate economic signal.
