The price of Bitcoin futures has fallen below the spot price. This situation is called a negative basis. It is a significant shift in market sentiment. For the first time since March 2025, futures are trading at a discount. This erases the premium that typically exists when traders are optimistic and using leverage.
The negative basis suggests traders are becoming cautious. They are de-risking their positions. This means they are pricing Bitcoin for a lower short-term outlook. The market’s leverage ratio has also cooled off. It has reset to a lower level of around 0.3. This indicates the overheated leverage from earlier in the year has diminished.
A lower leverage ratio reduces the risk of forced liquidations. This creates a healthier structure for the futures market. If bullish momentum returns, this cleaner backdrop could be a positive catalyst. It would give traders room to re-enter positions without the market fragility seen before.
Historical data presents two possible paths. Since August 2023, every time the basis turned negative, it marked a bottom during bull markets. If the current market is still in a bull phase, this could be an early signal for recovery. However, if conditions resemble January 2022, the signal could instead mark the start of a deeper downturn. A return of confidence would be signaled by the basis moving back above the 0% to 0.5% range.
Another metric adds to the caution. Analysts are watching internal exchange flows. This measures Bitcoin moved between an exchange’s own wallets. Sharp spikes in this activity often coincide with turbulent market periods. They can indicate major moves by large players.
This pattern was seen during rapid price rallies in late 2024 and mid-2025. Those spikes were followed by steep price corrections. Given the combination of a negative basis and rising internal flows, Bitcoin appears to be searching for a price bottom. The current momentum suggests this search may continue.
